Deloitte’s annual holiday retail forecast anticipates a growth of 3.5% to 4.6% in holiday retail sales for 2023.
The projected sales are expected to total between $1.54 to $1.56 trillion during the November to January timeframe.
In comparison, the 2022 holiday sales experienced a growth of 7.6%, totaling $1.49 trillion.
E-commerce Sales Projection
Growth Estimates
Deloitte forecasts that e-commerce sales will witness a year-over-year growth of 10.3% to 12.8% during the 2023-2024 holiday season. This could result in e-commerce holiday sales reaching between $278 billion and $284 billion.
Industry Implications
US jewellers have faced an uncertain 12 months, with diamond prices experiencing a decline. The forecasted increase in holiday retail sales provides an opportunity for jewellers to strategically plan inventory, marketing, and sales efforts to navigate these challenges.
For US jewelers, the anticipated growth in e-commerce sales underscores the importance of optimizing online platforms and aligning marketing strategies to capture online consumers.
Economic Factors Influencing Sales
Employment and Income Growth
Daniel Bachman, Deloitte’s U.S. economic forecaster, mentioned, “We expect healthy employment and income growth to keep the volume of sales growing for the 2023 holiday season.”
Inflation and Pandemic-Era Savings
Bachman also noted that the inflation, which significantly contributed to the increase in retail sales value last year, is expected to moderate. Additionally, a decreasing pool of pandemic-era savings is likely to weigh on retail sales, resulting in a slower growth compared to last year.
Consumer Spending Trends
Shift in Spending Patterns
Nick Handrinos, vice chair, Deloitte LLP, highlighted that “Retail sales are expected to increase even as higher prices continue to create a battle for consumer spending.” He pointed out that spending on services post-pandemic is showing signs of leveling off, while spending on durable goods remains high.
E-commerce Dominance
Handrinos emphasized the continued strength of e-commerce sales, stating, “This season e-commerce sales should continue to be strong as consumers search for the best deals online to maximize their wallets.”
